COHRLITESIVEMTSI#103
Thesis
Photonics basket: COHR (lasers), LITE (optical components), SIVE (silicon photonics), MTSI/MACOM (RF/photonics). Photonics supply chain consolidation.
By @Allstarsv16 · View post ↗
Original post text
$COHR $LITE $SIVE $MACOM
🐂 Bull Case
- Photonics theme supported by 4 investable names with avg score 61
- Secular tailwind from AI capex/hyperscaler spending flows upstream into theme constituents
- Diversified basket reduces single-stock risk while capturing thematic upside
🐻 Bear Case
- Theme concentration risk if macro/regulatory environment shifts
- Valuation expansion may be priced in across basket constituents
- Theme timing risk - capex cycles can be lumpy
🚫 Invalidation
Basket average drops >20% from entry with no fundamental catalyst change
Break Conditions
- Majority of basket tickers break below SMA200 simultaneously
- AI capex spending guide-down from hyperscalers
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | COHR | $419.13 | 2026-06-03 18:34:25 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $361.47
Created: 2026-05-30 18:32:45
Scored: 2026-05-30T18:33:58.846907+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-03T18:34:25.052044+00:00
Theme: Photonics