IQE#124
Thesis
IQE +10%, dilution fixed balance sheet, IQE is the bottleneck as only independent at-scale compound semiconductor maker
By @Allstarsv16 · View post ↗
Original post text
$IQE +10% today. Some called for a return below 30p after the dilution. The thesis said otherwise. The dilution was the price of fixing the balance sheet. The market has moved on. What the market is starting to price: IQE is the bottleneck. The only independent at-scale https://t.co/ATElM5N75m https://t.co/Dmdy9Judy6
🐂 Bull Case
- Only independent at-scale compound semiconductor wafer maker — monopoly-like positioning
- Dilution fixed balance sheet, market pricing in recovery → +10% today confirms momentum
- AI + EV + telecom demand creates multi-year structural growth for compound semis
🐻 Bear Case
- Negative PE (-89x) with -31.5% revenue decline — fundamentals still weak
- Small cap (£540M) — liquidity risk and dilution overhang from recent raise
- UK market undervalues growth stocks — potential persistent discount
🚫 Invalidation
Revenue decline continues for 3+ quarters or second dilution announcement
Break Conditions
- Revenue growth doesn't turn positive within 2 quarters
- Another dilution event occurs
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | IQE | $45.00 | 2026-06-05 18:35:43 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $55.10
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:44
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:42.321453+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:43.187340+00:00