IQESIVESOI#53
Thesis
CPO/InP photonics basket thesis playing out across IQE, SIVE, SOI; short-term noise but same fundamental conviction
By @Allstarsv16 · View post ↗
Original post text
Yesterday: short term price is noise. Today: $IQE +19%, $SIVE +12%, $SOI +10%. Same thesis. Same stocks. Same conviction. Nothing changed except the price.
🐂 Bull Case
- Theme basket avg quality 59; leaders: IQE(64), SIVE(59), SOI(53)
- Hyperscaler AI capex cycle continues — supply chain tightness benefits all basket names
- CPO/photics TAM expansion drives multi-year revenue tailwind across layers
🐻 Bear Case
- Sector rotation risk if AI capex disappoints or hyperscaler guide-down
- Concentration risk: basket dominated by semi/photonics — correlated drawdown
- Valuation expansion may stall on any slowdown in AI inference demand
🚫 Invalidation
IQE closes below SMA200 on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops >15% from layer entry within 2 weeks
- Two or more basket constituents miss earnings by >10%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | IQE | $52.90 | 2026-05-26 12:28:34 |
| t0 | SIVE | $79.55 | 2026-05-26 12:28:34 |
| t+3d | IQE | $49.35 | 2026-06-04 18:35:44 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $52.90
Created: 2026-05-26 12:27:59
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:05.151804+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:44.227452+00:00