IQE#54
Thesis
IQE +515% YTD; capital raise dilution is short-term noise; long-term thesis intact, zoom out
By @Allstarsv16 · View post ↗
Original post text
$IQE short term price action is noise. YTD stock is +515%. Capital raise diluted, issue price dragged it short term. Zoom out.
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (0.001) accelerates on AI/optical demand — PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (42.9), Weinstein stage 2 — momentum intact
- Institutional inflows + sector rotation favors AI supply chain names
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI 49.8 — overbought risk, near-term pullback possible
- PE (-109.66667) elevated; any guide-down triggers de-risking
- Gross margin (0.0139) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (17.4) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (17.4) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | IQE | $52.90 | 2026-05-26 12:28:34 |
| t+3d | IQE | $49.35 | 2026-06-04 18:35:45 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $52.90
Created: 2026-05-26 12:27:59
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:05.155981+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:45.256460+00:00