IQE#76
Thesis
FY2025 photonics revenue up 15% YoY on AI/data center demand and US defense funding, long-term structural thesis intact despite headline softness
By @Allstarsv16 · View post ↗
Original post text
$IQE FY2025 results just dropped. Revenue £97.3M, down 17.6% YoY. Photonics revenue: £57.1M. UP 15% year on year. Driven by US defence funding and accelerating AI and data centre demand for InP solutions. Long-term thesis intact.
🐂 Bull Case
- Photonics revenue +15% YoY trend continues → becomes dominant revenue driver as AI demand scales
- US defense funding for InP solutions expands → TAM growth for photonics division
- SMA50 at 40.06 supports price structure with improving fundamentals
🐻 Bear Case
- Wireless segment decline (-40%) accelerates → total revenue pressure despite photonics growth
- Fundraising dilution risk → existing shareholders face EPS dilution
- UK small-cap liquidity risk adds volatility
🚫 Invalidation
Photonics revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Break Conditions
- Photonics revenue growth stalls or goes negative
- Significant share dilution from fundraising exceeds 20%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | IQE | $47.50 | 2026-05-29 18:37:01 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $47.65
Created: 2026-05-28 18:38:01
Scored: 2026-05-28T18:41:23.059757+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-29T18:37:01.713597+00:00