SIVE#105
Thesis
Chokepoint investment theory: SIVE is a critical InP photonic chip supplier bottleneck in the CPO/photonics supply chain chain from AXTI to SOI to SIVE. Institutional and sovereign-level validation.
Original post text
I wonder if my chokepoint investment theory… With AXTI to SOI to SIVE will be studied in future history books? Regardless, I think everyone here is a part of making history. Given Reuters to Institutions to Countries are reacting to supply chain game theory with Serenity.
🐂 Bull Case
- CPO architecture adoption accelerates → InP demand skyrockets → SIVE as sole pure-play InP photonics supplier commands pricing power
- NASDAQ uplisting triggers re-rating from Swedish small-cap discount to US semiconductor premium → 2-3x valuation expansion
- Pipeline growing +77% YoY while revenue is temporarily suppressed → exponential revenue inflection when CPO TAM hits $91B
🐻 Bear Case
- Negative earnings (PE -345) with operating margin -67% → cash burn risk if CPO adoption timeline slips
- Revenue declined -31% YoY → near-term fundamental deterioration despite strong pipeline narrative
- Price-to-book at 19.9x → extremely rich valuation for an unprofitable company, vulnerable to de-risking events
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SEK 34 (SMA50) on above-average volume, or CPO architecture loses to rival approach in next-gen GPU designs
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA50 (SEK 34) on above-average volume — breaks the uptrend structure
- CPO design wins fail to materialize in next 2 major hyperscaler product cycles
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $78.80 | 2026-06-05 18:35:51 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $68.95
Created: 2026-05-31 18:32:52
Scored: 2026-05-31T18:34:50.984899+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:51.380262+00:00