@aleabitoreddit

View on X ↗ · Onboarded 2026-05-24

38.4

Composite Score

56.7

Avg Thesis Quality

116

Total Theses

Hits

Misses

28%

Hit Rate

Top Tickers

SIVE×39AAOI×13XFAB×10SIVE.ST×10NVDA×7NBIS×6AXTI×4SOI×4MRVL×4EWY×3

Thesis Breakdown

106

Stock

Theme

Hits

Misses

All Theses

#	Tickers	Type	Direction	Call	Quality	Status	Reasoning
317	AXTI	stock	LONG	PASS	39	scored	Reuters report confirms China controls InP supply critical for AI data centers; AXTI is a key US-based InP supplier addressing this bottleneck
318	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	59	scored	CPO-related stocks like AAOI have strong alpha; thesis is that fundamental CPO demand supersedes macro headwinds
319	SIVE	stock	LONG	PASS	46	scored	Retail frontran institutions on CPO/SiPh architectural shift; near-zero US institutional ownership in SIVE now seeing institutional inflows
320	SIVE	stock	LONG	PASS	46	scored	Major institutional accumulation: BlackRock passive, Fidelity direct positions, JP Morgan coverage; validates thesis on SIVE
321	NVDA	stock	LONG	WATCH	65	scored	NVDA driving 800V DC and CPO architectural shifts which are inevitable despite market skepticism; $5T company forcing industry transition
314	XFAB	stock	LONG	AVOID	28	scored	XFAB building Silicon Photonics foundry as alternative to TSEM/GFS; European backing and NVDA supply chain relevance
315	LPK	stock	LONG	WATCH	57	scored	LPK discovered as direct SpaceX supplier via US import logs; ahead of SpaceX IPO, supply chain plays offer upside
316	SIVE	stock	LONG	PASS	46	scored	Bullish conviction on SIVE; part of ongoing CPO/Silicon Photonics thesis
311	NVDA	stock	LONG	WATCH	65	scored	NVDA is America's national champion in AI; 800V DC and CPO architectural shifts secure NVDA's supply chain dominance
312	AAOI	stock	LONG	PASS	49	scored	AAOI is a domestic champion in critical AI infrastructure; US-based laser fab to production for AI optical components
313	SPCX	stock	LONG	WATCH	60	scored	Frankfurt Bank estimates massive overseas demand for SPCX shares could refinance 8% of US current-account deficit; unprecedented demand signal
310	WULFCIFR	stock	LONG	WATCH	56	scored	Anthropic pursuing first DC leases creates tailwind for neocloud/colo sector; WULF and CIFR positioned as beneficiaries
275	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	57	hit	Blackrock and Fidelity establishing positions in SIVE; institutional accumulation following index listing signals confidence
276	LITE	stock	LONG	WATCH	61	miss	LITE management at Mizuho confirmed CPO scale-up optical shipping in H2 2027, ramp 2028 - on schedule, no delays
277	NVDA	stock	LONG	WATCH	61	miss	NVDA Networking SVP refuting delay reports; CPO switch entering mass production, no schedule delays; bullish on networking/CPO
278	EWY	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	hit	EWY IV expansion trade from 32% to 58%; SK Hynix/Samsung concentration driving volatility; way ITM positions returned ~383%
273	LITEAAOISIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	60	miss	Optical players recovering after unwarranted selloff; bullish on LITE, AAOI, SIVE rebounding
274	NVDA	stock	LONG	WATCH	59	miss	NVDA denied 800V DC delay reports; Morgan Stanley and Computex checks contradict bearish SemiAnalysis claims; CPO thesis intact
249	SIVE	stock	LONG	PASS	49	hit	Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders for Space applications (Allspace). Beamforming ICs for LEO/multi-orbit satellite comms. Major new revenue catalyst.
250	JBL	stock	LONG	WATCH	55	miss	JBL compelling at $38B market cap. Markets haven't priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business. AI infrastructure demand driver.
251	RDDT	stock	LONG	WATCH	56	miss	Bullish RDDT since $140. Inverse Cramer signal - Cramer was telling everyone to buy while she was already long.
205	NBIS	stock	LONG	WATCH	57	miss	NBIS has clean financing structure vs IREN's $6B ATM dilution. NBIS is structurally superior as a neocloud with no toxic financing overhang.
206	AAOIMRVL	stock	LONG	WATCH	51	miss	Recommending holding high-beta individual stocks like AAOI and MRVL over RDDT which has poor risk/reward. Directional long conviction on semis.
200	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	PASS	48	miss	JP Morgan disclosed 5.25%+ ownership of Sivers, signaling major institutional accumulation. $135M is small for US institutions who could acquire 25%+. Float constraint limits buying.
201	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	PASS	49	miss	SIVE only up 3.36% despite JP Morgan buying 5%+ of float. First major institutional signal. Price reaction understated suggests further upside as institutional buying continues.
202	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	PASS	48	miss	Institutional accumulation by JP Morgan of 5%+ ownership. CPO Supercycle catalyst ahead. Comparison to Point72/IQE precedent.
203	688017.SS	stock	LONG	WATCH	57	miss	LeaderDrive is China's standout component leader in robotics. Unique positioning vs lower-margin assembly competitors. High-value component exposure to humanoid robotics.
204	SIVE.STSOI	stock	LONG	PASS	48	miss	NVDA Jensen Huang called out Silicon Photonics requiring supply volumes beyond imagination. Bullish read-through for SiPh supply chain - SIVE now upstream NVDA ecosystem, SOI also benefits.
170	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	WATCH	59	miss	NVDA CEO calls for Silicon Photonics supply volumes beyond imagination. SIVE is now upstream in the Nvidia ecosystem — direct beneficiary of SiPho ramp.
171	MU	stock	LONG	BUY	78	miss	NVDA CEO signals multi-year memory shortage from AI infra scaling. MU earnings/profit projections look conservative — upside bias to estimates.
172	NBIS	stock	LONG	WATCH	60	miss	Among Neoclouds, NBIS has cleaner financing structure than IREN (which has $6B ATMs and infinite dilution overhang). Better float dynamics = structural advantage.
173	AMATAVGOAMD	theme	LONG	WATCH	65	hit	Glass substrate timeline clarifying: SKC Absolics first mover H2 2026 (with AMAT equipment), then Samsung H2 2027, then Apple/AVGO/hyperscalers. Multi-year capex theme with AMAT as equipment pick.
165	XFAB	stock	LONG	PASS	40	miss	XFAB compared to TSEM at early stage; leapfrogged current gen to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale-up inflection point; $1.4B market cap
166	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	PASS	49	miss	Sivers critical to CPO; JP Morgan accumulating massive institutional stake; retail shaken out
161	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	65	miss	Averaging up from $28; massive demand for 800G transceivers; potential to double/triple on execution; capacity ramp underway
160	688017.SS	stock	LONG	WATCH	66	hit	Top Chinese humanoid-robotics pick; >60% domestic harmonic reducer market share; 1800+ global customers; exposure to humanoid joint actuators, linear actuators, motors
159	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	WATCH	60	miss	Top CPO/photonics pick after AAOI; new hedge fund Protean Funds entering the space signals capital rotation into photonics
158	3374.TWO	stock	LONG	WATCH	54	miss	TSMC subsidiary; COUPE mass production ramp H2 2026; small cap $2.18B; photonics/CPO exposure via TSMC packaging
151	NBIS	stock	LONG	BUY	70	miss	Top neocloud pick thesis validated: $84->$260, sector leader vs IREN/CRWV
150	XFAB	stock	LONG	WATCH	51	miss	XFAB $1.7B MC: SiC/GaN/MEMS/SiPh foundry, EU+US CHIPS Act backing, below replacement P/B vs POET $2.4B comp
149	AVGO	stock	LONG	WATCH	67	miss	AVGO $100B+ 2027 revenue target reiterated; MRVL positioned as $1T networking/interconnects player (Jensen quote)
147	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	60	miss	SIVE = CPO chokepoint: CW lasers bottlenecked (LITE signal), laser fabs allocated to EML, supply constraints persist into 2026
148	NVDAAVGOMRVL	theme	LONG	WATCH	68	miss	Upstream semi supply chain to move higher on $5.3T hyperscaler capex 2025-2030 (Goldman, revised up from $4.5T)
145	RDDT	stock	LONG	WATCH	56	miss	Q earnings beat: 69% Y/Y rev growth, 91.5% gross margin, FCF printing, network-effect moat vs AI vibe coding
146	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	59	miss	Swedish hedge funds heavily underwater shorting SIVE; SIVE core CPO chokepoint, short squeeze dynamic
139	3171.TW6425.TW3324.TW	theme	LONG	AVOID	29	expired	CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) Taiwan supply chain taking off. Shunsin, Foci, Xintec all +10% indicating sector momentum.
140	LPK.F	stock	LONG	PASS	48	miss	LPK awaiting volume orders, positioned as beneficiary of AEHR ecosystem growth. Holding conviction.
138	XFAB	stock	LONG	AVOID	20	expired	CHIPS Act 2.0 prioritizes photonics; XFAB highlighted in Industry Policy Blueprints as key beneficiary.
137	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	WATCH	51	miss	SIVE confirmed as upstream laser chokepoint for Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem. Major fundamental catalyst.
136	SIVE.STXFAB	theme	LONG	WATCH	60	miss	EU CHIPS Act 2.0 confirms photonics as structural priority. Thematically bullish for EU photonics sector including SIVE and XFAB.
126	SIVE.ST	stock	LONG	WATCH	67	miss	SIVE following LITE optical wave playbook from $3B to $75B, CPO/pluggables/CW growth driver, GFS SiPH reference laser validation
127	XFAB.PA	stock	LONG	WATCH	55	miss	Sub-$2B MC silicon photonics foundry validated by NVDA/NOK, CHIPS act grants subsidizing capex, leading in SiPh foundry
128	MRVL	stock	LONG	WATCH	67	miss	Jensen Huang calls MRVL the next $1T company, currently $191B, 5x implied upside from AI/networking exposure
129	NBIS	stock	LONG	WATCH	69	miss	€8B AI cloud infrastructure investment in France, massive capacity buildout backed by Macron
116	XFAB	stock	LONG	—	—	expired	800vdc NVDA push benefits GaN/SiC players, Western supply chain preference for foundry models like XFAB
117	NVDA	stock	LONG	BUY	77	miss	At NVDA GTC/Computex expects next AI bottleneck announcement, referencing undervalued Japanese company with .6 P/B
118	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	66	miss	Favorite photonics exposure, went long at $28, high conviction post earnings at ~$70, 1.6T and volume orders with major hyperscalers
113	FLNC	stock	LONG	WATCH	56	miss	NVDA/Siemens/FLNC develop reference power architectures for Vera Rubin N72, 2 likely hyperscaler deals coming up, up 36%
114	NBIS	stock	LONG	BUY	71	miss	NBIS outperforming market and neocloud basket (IREN/CIFR), predicting $100B market cap, currently at $60B
115	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	59	hit	Biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver, actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies, Jabil 1.6T LRO used SIVE lasers
110	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	65	miss	Favorite US optical long, +20.1% today, comparing to SNDK, sees H1 2027 as massive inflection for photonics
111	EWY	stock	LONG	WATCH	57	miss	LEAPs up 485%, IV expansion and directional memory longs, held through Iran volatility
112	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	58	hit	Defending SIVE against short seller, MRVL Celestial likely direct customer for SIVE lasers, not through POET
105	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	hit	Chokepoint investment theory: SIVE is a critical InP photonic chip supplier bottleneck in the CPO/photonics supply chain chain from AXTI to SOI to SIVE. Institutional and sovereign-level validation.
106	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	62	hit	NASDAQ uplisting catalyst with US CHIPS act support, US cap table/ownership, larger valuation premiums, and M&A opportunities. Swedish media disinformation creating opportunity.
107	AAOIXFABMRVL	theme	LONG	WATCH	62	hit	CPO + Photonics supply chain theme: AAOI (transceivers/CPO), XFAB (photonics foundry), MRVL (Celestial/custom silicon). Media validation from Belgium press coverage.
92	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	51	hit	AAOI at $12B MC best risk/reward: H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything in-house, long-term supply agreements with NVDA/AMD.
93	SIVE	stock	LONG	PASS	49	hit	SIVE earnings focus on forward growth: 77% growth of opportunity pipeline. Qualification cycle optical player - forward pipeline matters, not pre-development earnings.
94	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	52	hit	Even more bullish on AAOI at $13B MC due to laser bottlenecks. Markets missed analyst note on long-term supply agreements with NVDA/AMD. H1 2027 projection of $471M revenue.
89	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	61	hit	Foxconn CPO switch products expected Q3 2026, 10K units with explosive growth next year. CPO thematic acceleration benefits AAOI as leading CPO transceiver maker.
90	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	51	hit	Sequential doubt resolution: customers validated (JBL, AAPL, Defense Primes, MRVL), execution validated via Win Semi partnership, now debating share expansion. Strong bull case trajectory.
91	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	52	hit	SIVE earnings transcript bullish: JBL pluggable partnership driving more optical transceiver requests, more laser capacity additions, expanding customer pipeline.
84	XFAB	stock	LONG	PASS	42	miss	Structural thesis: 800V DC power semiconductors with NVDA exposure, NVDA/NOK photonics evaluations, CHIPS Act beneficiary.
82	HPS.A	stock	LONG	—	—	expired	Transformers demand visibility very high, solid backlog, high market share of dry-type transformers. Compounding story at 2M timeframe.
83	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	62	hit	More bullish at $13B MC due to laser bottlenecks. Markets missed analyst note on potential long-term supply agreements with NVDA/AMD. Projecting $471M in H1 2027.
80	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	67	hit	Earnings transcript: demand far outstrips supply, targeting 60% gross margins. CPO demand so strong they don't look at competitors.
81	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	66	hit	Pipeline grew 77% in Q1 - clearest indication of CPO supercycle inflection. Exponential growth trajectory from here.
70	NBIS	stock	LONG	WATCH	62	miss	Leopold Aschenbrenner's 5.6% stake signals strong conviction, NBIS is the best neocloud, superior to IREN, up ~3x and continuing
68	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	62	miss	Ayar/Wiwynn CPO partnership is material catalyst for SIVE rack-scale deployments, Wiwynn serves AMZN/META/MSFT and in talks for GOOGL TPU
69	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	miss	MRVL earnings confirm CPO as strategically important AI infrastructure theme, SIVE positioned as likely laser supplier for scale-up interconnect
67	XFAB	stock	LONG	PASS	43	miss	Compelling at $1.5B MC, only high volume SiC foundry in America per NIST, critical infrastructure designation, CHIPS Act funding beneficiary, NVDA/NOK evaluating SiPH
66	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	miss	Most compelling CPO/photonics exposure, committed holder with plans to acquire more, potential to become next $80B+ company like LITE from $2.1B market cap
63	XFAB	stock	LONG	WATCH	54	miss	XFAB is an interesting long at $1.28B MC with EU CHIPS Act 2 catalyst for European photonics players. Has 800VDC power semi exposure via NVDA/NVTS/POWI push-through and silicon photonics/CPO capabilities. NVDA and NOK evaluating their SiPH side.
56	JBL	stock	LONG	WATCH	67	miss	JBL announced mass production of 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months; SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier; Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp
57	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	66	miss	Valuation gap: Ayar/Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence valued at $4B-15B+ while SIVE at ~$2.6B MC as upstream laser supplier for all of them; deep undervaluation relative to peers
55	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	66	miss	Most compelling CPO exposure stock; upstream laser supplier for major photonics players; unique until next architectural shift; peers valued at tens of billions while SIVE at $2.6B
28	SOIAXTI	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	Monopoly positions: SOI dominates silicon-on-insulator substrate market; AXTI controls indium phosphide (InP) substrates — critical upstream materials
29	TSM	stock	LONG	WATCH	68	miss	TSM COUPE + AI optical market tailwinds. Institutional investors optimistic about Taiwanese supply chain for advanced packaging and photonics
30	SIVEAEVA	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	miss	Supply chain thesis: SIVE is upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via Sivers -> AEVA (FMCW/CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics
31	AXTINVDA	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	miss	AI capex scaling to $3-4T annually by 2030 (Jensen Huang). AXTI controls photonics materials buildout. Stay exposed to AI infrastructure keys
25	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	63	miss	Valuation gap: Sivers at $2.6B MC vs peers Ayar/Celestial/Lightmatter at $4-15B. SIVE is upstream laser supplier for all, implying significant undervaluation
26	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	64	miss	Institutional inflow catalyst: Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI entering for first time; NASDAQ listing pending brings US institutional access
27	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	64	miss	NASDAQ index inclusion event: Vanguard and Blackrock passive inflows creating $60M+ buying pressure; MSCI inclusion next week adds more
2	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	miss	SIVE is a once-a-generation long; hyperscaler supplier penetration with GS TAM expansion projections for pluggables and CPO
3	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	miss	SIVE is a supply chain chokepoint for leading CPO players (Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter)
4	EWGEWTEWY	theme	LONG	WATCH	69	miss	Iran war ending lifts oil fear discount; Europe/Taiwan/Korea equities were oversold on geopolitical risk
5	AAOI	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	miss	AAOI long position; shorts getting squeezed as fundamental thesis plays out
6	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion brings $15-20M passive inflow plus MSCI inclusion; structural institutional buying
7	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE's IP moat from PhD-dense workforce outperforms larger competitor LITE
8	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE is the laser kingmaker for CPO/1.6T transition, supplying leading players; potential to match LITE's $80B+ valuation
9	AXTI	stock	LONG	PASS	44	miss	AXTI approaching PT of $150; went from $500M to $9.2B market cap in 5 months
10	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE NASDAQ listing proceeds to fund M&A with new board members; photonics TAM expansion ahead
11	FUTUTIGR	stock	SHORT	PASS	48	miss	Chinese government targeting historical revenues of FUTU/TIGR; no legal recourse in China's rigged courts
12	ALRIBLPKIQESOI	theme	LONG	WATCH	61	expired	European photonics/optical chokepoints rallying as sector momentum builds; LPKF CEO insider buying confirms conviction
13	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE supplies lasers to now-$5-10B+ CPO leaders; expanding into ASIC ecosystem with O-Net mass production
14	RKLB	stock	LONG	WATCH	55	hit	RKLB wins $90M Space Force contract; narrative momentum from US space buildup ahead of SpaceX IPO
15	AMDASXSANM	theme	LONG	WATCH	61	hit	AMD $10B+ investment into Taiwan semiconductor ecosystem validates the supply chain; ASX, SANM, and Taiwan ODMs benefit
16	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	Satirical but real thesis: SIVE is a crown jewel; market ignoring forward growth ahead of CPO supercycle
17	TSEM	theme	LONG	WATCH	58	miss	NVDA Computex/GTC Taipei keynote catalyst for Taiwan optical ecosystem; TSEM and others likely to benefit
18	RDDT	stock	LONG	PASS	46	miss	RDDT is one of the most profitable high-growth names post-earnings but undervalued because market only rewards AI capex plays
19	TE	stock	LONG	WATCH	56	miss	TE shorts are dangerous; OpenAI has enough capital to acquire the entire company as a potential acquirer
20	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE has multiple near-term catalysts: MSCI listing, CHIPS act funding, Jabil 1.6T ramp, Apple Watch design win, M&A board hires, Nasdaq listing
21	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE's early customers (Lightmatter $4B+, Lightelligence $10B+) validate the IP; M&A potential with NVDA/AMD-backed Ayar connection
22	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE adding M&A-experienced board members (Ericsson M&A head, HMS CFO) signals imminent acquisition strategy
23	SIVEIQESOI	theme	LONG	WATCH	62	hit	European photonics basket (SIVE, IQE, SOI) recovering with double-digit gains; core players with strong dip-buying support
24	SIVE	stock	LONG	WATCH	53	hit	SIVE 1.6T mass production with JBL ahead of schedule per JPM; dramatic moat in laser architecture with extreme demand