AAOIXFABMRVL#107
Thesis
CPO + Photonics supply chain theme: AAOI (transceivers/CPO), XFAB (photonics foundry), MRVL (Celestial/custom silicon). Media validation from Belgium press coverage.
Original post text
Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! Its cool to see my work in Belgium top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover AAOI, XFAB, MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics.
🐂 Bull Case
- CPO architecture adopted by NVDA next-gen GPUs → AAOI transceiver demand grows 5-10x from current levels
- MRVL custom silicon + Celestial platform becomes de facto standard for AI interconnect → revenue accelerates 30%+
- Photonics supply chain consolidation theme — both AAOI and MRVL are acquisition targets for hyperscalers building custom silicon
🐻 Bear Case
- XFAB (European photonics foundry) has no Yahoo Finance data — suggests illiquidity/opaque risk in key theme component
- Theme depends on CPO becoming mainstream architecture — if copper interconnects improve sufficiently, CPO timeline extends years
- AAOI at 33x PE and MRVL at 70x PE — both priced for perfection, any earnings miss triggers sharp de-rating
🚫 Invalidation
CPO architecture is not adopted in NVDA Rubin or subsequent GPU generation, or AAOI/MRVL lose design wins to competitors
Break Conditions
- NVDA or major hyperscaler announces delay in CPO integration roadmap
- Copper interconnect solutions (AOC/DAC) achieve sufficient bandwidth at lower cost for next 2 GPU generations
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $188.12 | 2026-06-03 18:34:24 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $158.41
Created: 2026-05-31 18:32:52
Scored: 2026-05-31T18:34:50.984899+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-03T18:34:24.289446+00:00
Theme: CPO Photonics Supply Chain