AAOI#110
Thesis
Favorite US optical long, +20.1% today, comparing to SNDK, sees H1 2027 as massive inflection for photonics
Original post text
I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is https://t.co/0JuWJFrz32 https://t.co/hymZBrCtE3
🐂 Bull Case
- Hyperscaler (AMZN/MSFT) 1.6T qualification drives explosive revenue growth → PT $250+
- Photonics market inflection H1 2027 creates sector-wide re-rating event
- Revenue growth >50% YoY + expanding margins → PE compression despite stock surge
🐻 Bear Case
- Trading at 39x PE with rapid price appreciation → vulnerable to any earnings miss
- SMA50 at $150, price at $188 — extended above mean, mean-reversion risk
- Photonics TAM timeline may disappoint if NVDA Rubin delayed
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $140 (SMA50 - 5%) on volume >2x average
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA50 ($150) on above-average volume
- Revenue growth slows below 20%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $177.36 | 2026-06-05 18:35:49 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $187.66
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:40
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:33.370706+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:49.224624+00:00