EWY#111
Thesis
LEAPs up 485%, IV expansion and directional memory longs, held through Iran volatility
Original post text
And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK https://t.co/WC7GD5RWka https://t.co/8VqhbCAziK
🐂 Bull Case
- South Korea memory sector (Samsung/SK Hynix) benefiting from AI HBM demand surge
- EWY leaps show strong directional conviction — IV expansion continues with earnings beats
- Korean won appreciation + export recovery adds tailwind to EWY ETF
🐻 Bear Case
- 28x PE for country ETF is stretched — geopolitical risk (North Korea) always present
- Memory sector cyclicality — current upcycle could peak in 6-12 months
- Concentrated exposure to Samsung/SK Hynix creates single-sector risk
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $150 on above-average volume + Samsung earnings miss
Break Conditions
- Samsung/SK Hynix report HBM inventory buildup
- EWY drops below SMA50 ($159)
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | EWY | $178.02 | 2026-06-05 18:35:50 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $217.33
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:40
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:34.082881+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:50.003799+00:00