SIVE#112
Thesis
Defending SIVE against short seller, MRVL Celestial likely direct customer for SIVE lasers, not through POET
Original post text
There's a new $SIVE short seller with 0 clue what they're talking about. 1. $MRVL Celestial is likely buying lasers directly with $SIVE as the laser supplier, not through $POET. As they've been identified as a likely direct customer since 2023. An analogy is if O-Net / https://t.co/XDrPS6OVNG
🐂 Bull Case
- MRVL Celestial direct customer relationship validates SIVE as premier laser supplier
- Jabil 1.6T LRO design win proves SIVE technology moat in optical transceivers
- TAM expansion into pluggable optical transceivers opens new revenue streams
🐻 Bear Case
- Negative PE (-304x) and -31% revenue growth — fundamentals currently weak
- Price at $61 with SMA200 at $12 — massively overextended, 5x above 200-day mean
- Swedish small-cap liquidity risk + short seller targeting adds volatility
🚫 Invalidation
Revenue decline accelerates beyond -40% or major customer loss announced
Break Conditions
- Revenue continues declining >20% for 2+ quarters
- MRVL Celestial deal doesn't materialize
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $78.80 | 2026-06-05 18:35:50 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $60.85
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:40
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:34.778678+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:50.687337+00:00