SIVE#115
Thesis
Biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver, actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies, Jabil 1.6T LRO used SIVE lasers
Original post text
This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed. Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies. After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”. “Actively working”, so https://t.co/NYGMP7tyV4
🐂 Bull Case
- MRVL Celestial direct customer relationship validates SIVE as premier laser supplier
- Jabil 1.6T LRO design win proves SIVE technology moat in optical transceivers
- TAM expansion into pluggable optical transceivers opens new revenue streams
🐻 Bear Case
- Negative PE (-304x) and -31% revenue growth — fundamentals currently weak
- Price at $61 with SMA200 at $12 — massively overextended, 5x above 200-day mean
- Swedish small-cap liquidity risk + short seller targeting adds volatility
🚫 Invalidation
Revenue decline accelerates beyond -40% or major customer loss announced
Break Conditions
- Revenue continues declining >20% for 2+ quarters
- MRVL Celestial deal doesn't materialize
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $78.80 | 2026-06-05 18:35:48 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $60.85
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:41
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:36.385527+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:48.535697+00:00