AAOI#118
Thesis
Favorite photonics exposure, went long at $28, high conviction post earnings at ~$70, 1.6T and volume orders with major hyperscalers
Original post text
$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now. I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT. High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with https://t.co/MnMhR1dm9D
🐂 Bull Case
- Hyperscaler (AMZN/MSFT) 1.6T qualification drives explosive revenue growth → PT $250+
- Photonics market inflection H1 2027 creates sector-wide re-rating event
- Revenue growth >50% YoY + expanding margins → PE compression despite stock surge
🐻 Bear Case
- Trading at 39x PE with rapid price appreciation → vulnerable to any earnings miss
- SMA50 at $150, price at $188 — extended above mean, mean-reversion risk
- Photonics TAM timeline may disappoint if NVDA Rubin delayed
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $140 (SMA50 - 5%) on volume >2x average
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA50 ($150) on above-average volume
- Revenue growth slows below 20%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $177.36 | 2026-06-05 18:35:45 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $187.66
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:43
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:37.339607+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:45.485804+00:00