POWIWOLFNVTSAOSL#122
Thesis
Complete basket of analog/power semis for GaN/SiC power conversion thesis
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
A more complete basket of analog/power semis: In case anyone wanted to do more research: - $POWI: GaN ICs for AC-DC power conversion - $WOLF: vertically integrated SiC substrates + power devices - $NVTS: pure-play GaN + SiC power devices - $AOSL: power MOSFETs, DrMOS + power
🐂 Bull Case
- AI data center power demands driving massive GaN/SiC adoption, TAM expanding 3-5x by 2028
- US CHIPS Act + reshoring mandates favor domestic power semi players in basket
- EV + industrial electrification mega-cycle provides multi-year revenue tailwind
🐻 Bear Case
- Most basket names are unprofitable or have negative revenue growth — margin pressure from competition
- SiC/GaN technology transitions slower than expected, capex cycles may disappoint
- Concentration risk: NVDA pullback would cascade through power semi demand chain
🚫 Invalidation
Basket average return underperforms SOX by >15% over 3 months
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops below SMA50 on weekly timeframe
- Key names (POWI, NVTS) report consecutive revenue declines >20%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | POWI | $77.70 | 2026-06-05 18:35:41 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $82.18
Created: 2026-06-01 18:32:44
Scored: 2026-06-01T18:34:41.396366+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:41.777744+00:00
Theme: Analog/Power Semis