SIVE.ST#131
Thesis
GFS adds Sivers InP lasers to SiPh reference designs incl CPO platform, value chain alignment with AVGO/MRVL/NVDA widens funnel
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
Yeah, transformational news for $SIVE: $GFS add Sivers' InP lasers to menu of qualified light sources in its SiPh reference designs, incl. their new CPO platform. Mapping to $GFS value chain like: $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA. Which widens out $SIVE's funnel massively & gives them a https://t.co/lvceiKTg18
🐂 Bull Case
- GFS qualification as SiPh reference laser source → direct pipeline to AVGO/MRVL/NVDA value chain
- CPO platform inclusion = massive TAM expansion as hyperscalers adopt co-packaged optics
- New 52w high with 2x average volume = strong institutional buying conviction
🐻 Bear Case
- Unprofitable (-52% margin) with -31% revenue decline; thesis depends entirely on future design wins
- Extreme price extension: 164% above SMA50, 709% above SMA200 → parabolic, reversion risk severe
- Tiny $29B market cap in competitive photonics space against LITE ($75B) with established revenue
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $37 (SMA50) on above-average volume, signaling the breakout has failed
Break Conditions
- GFS partnership fails to translate to actual design wins/revenue within 6 months
- Price closes below SMA50 (~$37)
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE.ST | $78.80 | 2026-06-05 18:35:37 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $97.45
Created: 2026-06-02 18:33:59
Scored: 2026-06-02T18:36:46.662033+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:35:37.962476+00:00