CRDO#132
Thesis
Earnings beat: Rev $437M +157% YoY, EPS $1.16 +231% YoY, raised guidance for rev+gross margins, buying post-sell-off dip at $192
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
Not sure why $CRDO is down 16% after releasing positive earnings? Rev: $437M vs $433M expected (+157% YoY) EPS: $1.16 vs $1.00 expected (+231% YoY) Guidance: Raised for rev + gross margins Personally started a position at ~$192 on this negative market reaction: For more SiPho https://t.co/8db3KyL2FC
🐂 Bull Case
- Earnings smash: Rev +157% YoY, EPS +231% YoY, raised guidance → fundamental acceleration confirmed
- Debt-free balance sheet (D/E 0.88, current ratio 10.8) + 31.8% profit margin = quality compounder
- RSI 61 with price near 52w high = healthy momentum, not overextended
🐻 Bear Case
- Stock down 16% post-earnings despite beat → market may be pricing in peak growth or multiple compression
- PE 126x with forward PE 27x → growth already largely priced in at current levels
- Revenue concentration risk in semiconductor connectivity; cyclical downturn could compress margins
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $147 (SMA30W) on above-average volume, breaking the secular uptrend
Break Conditions
- Next quarter revenue growth decelerates below 100% YoY
- Gross margin compresses below 60%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | CRDO | $221.12 | 2026-06-04 18:35:40 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $228.61
Created: 2026-06-02 18:33:59
Scored: 2026-06-02T18:36:46.663817+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:40.297165+00:00