SIVE#146
Thesis
Swedish hedge funds heavily underwater shorting SIVE; SIVE core CPO chokepoint, short squeeze dynamic
Original post text
Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of https://t.co/gD1vMQvQV5 https://t.co/2yLtXVeZTf
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (-0.311) accelerates on AI/optical demand — PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (40.0), Weinstein stage 2 — momentum intact
- Institutional inflows + sector rotation favors AI supply chain names
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI 62.4 — overbought risk, near-term pullback possible
- PE (-433.75) elevated; any guide-down triggers de-risking
- Gross margin (0.75712997) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (12.9) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (12.9) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $76.50 | 2026-06-09 18:36:43 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $86.75
Created: 2026-06-04 18:33:20
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:03.842410+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-09T18:36:43.588092+00:00