NVDAAVGOMRVL#148
Thesis
Upstream semi supply chain to move higher on $5.3T hyperscaler capex 2025-2030 (Goldman, revised up from $4.5T)
Original post text
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. https://t.co/UtkU1IU2V5
🐂 Bull Case
- Theme basket avg quality 68; leaders: NVDA(74), AVGO(67), MRVL(62)
- Hyperscaler AI capex cycle continues — supply chain tightness benefits all basket names
- CPO/photics TAM expansion drives multi-year revenue tailwind across layers
🐻 Bear Case
- Sector rotation risk if AI capex disappoints or hyperscaler guide-down
- Concentration risk: basket dominated by semi/photonics — correlated drawdown
- Valuation expansion may stall on any slowdown in AI inference demand
🚫 Invalidation
NVDA closes below SMA200 on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops >15% from layer entry within 2 weeks
- Two or more basket constituents miss earnings by >10%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | NVDA | $206.94 | 2026-06-09 18:36:43 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $220.04
Created: 2026-06-04 18:33:21
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:02.436406+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-09T18:36:43.411763+00:00