XFAB#150
Thesis
XFAB $1.7B MC: SiC/GaN/MEMS/SiPh foundry, EU+US CHIPS Act backing, below replacement P/B vs POET $2.4B comp
Original post text
The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value ->
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (-0.042) accelerates on AI/optical demand — PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (7.0), Weinstein stage 2 — momentum intact
- Institutional inflows + sector rotation favors AI supply chain names
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI 61.9 — overbought risk, near-term pullback possible
- PE (83.692314) elevated; any guide-down triggers de-risking
- Gross margin (0.19783) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (5.9) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (5.9) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | XFAB | $9.67 | 2026-06-11 18:36:32 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $10.88
Created: 2026-06-04 18:33:24
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:34:57.406282+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-11T18:36:32.827356+00:00