SIVE.ST#159
Thesis
Top CPO/photonics pick after AAOI; new hedge fund Protean Funds entering the space signals capital rotation into photonics
Original post text
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds entering the space.
🐂 Bull Case
- SIVE.ST revenue growth (-0.311) accelerates on AI/photonics/memory demand, supports PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (41.4) with SMA200 (13.3) below; momentum intact, Weinstein stage 2
- Sector rotation favors semis/AI infra; institutional inflows expanding the multiple
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI at 62.3 signals overbought risk; sharp pullback possible on macro shocks
- Gross margin (0.75712997) compression if competitive pressure or capex rises sharply
- PE (-394.0) elevated — guide-down on next earnings could trigger de-rating
🚫 Invalidation
Weekly close below SMA200 (13.3) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Weekly close below SMA200 (13.3)
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE.ST | $74.80 | 2026-06-10 18:38:38 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $78.80
Created: 2026-06-05 18:33:19
Scored: 2026-06-05T18:34:24.145750+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:38.285197+00:00