AAOI#161
Thesis
Averaging up from $28; massive demand for 800G transceivers; potential to double/triple on execution; capacity ramp underway
Original post text
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts. I feel like it's just imminent to double or triple if they execute. There's just too much demand for 800G.
🐂 Bull Case
- AAOI revenue growth (0.514) accelerates on AI/photonics/memory demand, supports PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (156.7) with SMA200 (70.1) below; momentum intact, Weinstein stage 2
- Sector rotation favors semis/AI infra; institutional inflows expanding the multiple
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI at 46.3 signals overbought risk; sharp pullback possible on macro shocks
- Gross margin (0.29642) compression if competitive pressure or capex rises sharply
- PE (37.15843) elevated — guide-down on next earnings could trigger de-rating
🚫 Invalidation
Weekly close below SMA200 (70.1) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Weekly close below SMA200 (70.1)
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $175.24 | 2026-06-10 18:38:38 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $176.89
Created: 2026-06-05 18:33:22
Scored: 2026-06-05T18:34:29.857305+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:38.000951+00:00