AAOI#164
Thesis
Still early innings; demand exceeds capacity; 2027 inflection on 800G/1.6T ramp; capacity expansion underway now
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
Still very early with $AAOI: +11.5% today. 2027 is when we'll start to see things rocket for them. They've got more demand than they can handle rn. Capacity ramp is happening now for 800G.
🐂 Bull Case
- AAOI revenue growth (0.514) accelerates on AI/photonics/memory demand, supports PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (156.7) with SMA200 (70.1) below; momentum intact, Weinstein stage 2
- Sector rotation favors semis/AI infra; institutional inflows expanding the multiple
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI at 46.3 signals overbought risk; sharp pullback possible on macro shocks
- Gross margin (0.29642) compression if competitive pressure or capex rises sharply
- PE (37.210815) elevated — guide-down on next earnings could trigger de-rating
🚫 Invalidation
Weekly close below SMA200 (70.1) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Weekly close below SMA200 (70.1)
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $175.24 | 2026-06-10 18:38:37 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $176.89
Created: 2026-06-05 18:33:25
Scored: 2026-06-05T18:34:37.586275+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:37.619794+00:00