MU#171
Thesis
NVDA CEO signals multi-year memory shortage from AI infra scaling. MU earnings/profit projections look conservative — upside bias to estimates.
Original post text
Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren't looking too crazy anymore?
🐂 Bull Case
- NVDA CEO multi-year memory shortage call → MU pricing power sustained through 2026-2027
- Forward PE 16.2x vs 85% revenue growth (PEG <0.8) — deeply undervalued relative to growth profile
- HBM3e/HBM4 ramp with NVDA + hyperscaler demand — ASP/mix tailwind driving margin expansion
🐻 Bear Case
- Capex over-cycle risk if AI infrastructure demand disappoints or hyperscalers pause spend
- Memory historically cyclical (boom-bust) — current pricing could overshoot and revert
- Stock up massively from $360 SMA200 — pullback risk after such extended run
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $700 (below SMA50 $617) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- HBM supply catches up faster than expected via Samsung/SK Hynix capacity adds
- Earnings miss on ASP decline or inventory build
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | MU | $895.59 | 2026-06-10 18:38:34 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $864.01
Created: 2026-06-07 18:33:26
Scored: 2026-06-07T18:35:27.190221+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:34.661815+00:00