NVDA#174
Thesis
NVDA CEO confirms everything across supply chain is in shortage — memory, wafers, advanced packaging, SiPho, cable connectors. Multi-year supply tightness supports NVDA pricing power.
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
Probably best to stay long guys: $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: Everything across the supply chain...is in shortage. Memory, wafers, advanced packaging, SiPho, and cable connectors. Diamond hands.
🐂 Bull Case
- Supply-chain-wide shortage (memory, wafers, packaging, SiPho, cables) = sustained pricing power into 2027
- Forward PE 16.2x vs 85% revenue growth and 215% earnings growth — PEG 0.63, deeply undervalued
- Gross margin 74% / operating margin 66% — AI infrastructure capex supercycle still in early innings
🐻 Bear Case
- Stock concentration risk — single-name AI bet with high beta (2.2) on AI narrative shifts
- China export restrictions and custom-silicon adoption (AWS Trainium, Google TPU) pressure revenue trajectory
- Margin normalization risk as competition (AMD MI400, custom ASICs) gains share in 2026-2027
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $188 (SMA200) on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Hyperscaler capex guide-down on next earnings cycle (Jan/Apr 2027)
- Blackwell/Rubin ramp delays or manufacturing yield issues
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | NVDA | $201.76 | 2026-06-10 18:38:34 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $205.10
Created: 2026-06-07 18:33:27
Scored: 2026-06-07T18:35:27.191924+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:34.045372+00:00