RPI.L#175
Thesis
Raspberry Pi H1 EBITDA $38M (+96% YoY), well ahead of $43.7M FY forecast. Holding 2025 DRAM inventory purchased at low cost — direct beneficiary of memory inflation.
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
So glad to see British tech like $RPI get some love: +21.1% today after releasing H1 2026 earnings note: -> H1 EBITDA: $38M (+96% YoY) -> FY EBITDA forecast was $43.7M - so well on track to beat that. Key driver is $RPI were holding 2025 DRAM inventory, purchased at low
🐂 Bull Case
- H1 EBITDA $38M (+96% YoY) — operating leverage inflection point; FY forecast $43.7M well within reach
- Carrying 2025 DRAM inventory at low cost → direct beneficiary of memory inflation (same dynamic as MU/SNDK)
- Raspberry Pi 5 product cycle still early — consumer/SBC demand secular, industrial IoT pipeline expanding
🐻 Bear Case
- Small UK tech stock (mkt cap ~$2B) — limited liquidity, large bid-ask spreads on LSE
- Component cost normalization eventually reverses the inventory windfall in 2H 2026
- Concentrated product line — single-board computer market niche, lack of diversification
🚫 Invalidation
Close below 800p (below SMA50 ~624p) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- DRAM prices collapse in 2H 2026 as Samsung/SK Hynix add capacity
- Inventory write-down if end-demand softens or Pi 5 cycle matures faster than expected
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | RPI.L | $833.00 | 2026-06-10 18:38:34 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $1051.00
Created: 2026-06-07 18:33:27
Scored: 2026-06-07T18:35:27.192378+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-10T18:38:34.267516+00:00