SIVE#25
Thesis
Valuation gap: Sivers at $2.6B MC vs peers Ayar/Celestial/Lightmatter at $4-15B. SIVE is upstream laser supplier for all, implying significant undervaluation
Original post text
For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like https://t.co/iRdiQy0BMt
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (0.108) accelerates on AI/photonics demand, PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (28.4) with SMA200 (9.9) far below, momentum intact
- Institutional inflows expand as sector rotation favors photonics/semis
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI at 66.0 suggests overbought risk, pullback possible
- Gross margin (0.73530996) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
- PE (-427.75) elevated, de-risking on any guide-down
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (9.9) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (9.9) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $70.20 | 2026-05-28 18:42:59 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $85.55
Created: 2026-05-25 18:33:32
Scored: 2026-05-25T18:36:12.956408+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-28T18:42:59.697510+00:00