LITE#276
Thesis
LITE management at Mizuho confirmed CPO scale-up optical shipping in H2 2027, ramp 2028 - on schedule, no delays
Original post text
$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got https://t.co/uNhqTnqWUP https://t.co/WKUUtQpUV4
🐂 Bull Case
- Strong revenue growth momentum (0.901) supporting upward earnings revision cycle
- Technical breakout potential: price at $863.5 vs SMA50 $894.067001953125 with RSI at N/A offering room
- Industry tailwinds and sector rotation catalyst driving institutional accumulation
🐻 Bear Case
- Valuation premium risk: PE at N/A with any earnings miss could trigger de-rating
- Macro headwinds (rates, geopolitical risk) creating near-term pressure on multiples
- Competitive intensity increasing in core market, potential margin compression
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $489.5607253646851 (SMA200) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 ($489.5607253646851) on above-average volume
- Revenue growth decelerates below sector average for two consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | LITE | $874.05 | 2026-06-11 18:36:13 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $863.50
Created: 2026-06-10 18:34:52
Scored: 2026-06-10T18:36:49.454231+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-11T18:36:13.247573+00:00