EWY#278
Thesis
EWY IV expansion trade from 32% to 58%; SK Hynix/Samsung concentration driving volatility; way ITM positions returned ~383%
Original post text
$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade. Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM. Was such a goated call? (~383% return) Had way too many great ideas this year… Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration https://t.co/Kjur1bdKp7 https://t.co/bOADobOLLx
🐂 Bull Case
- Strong revenue growth momentum (N/A) supporting upward earnings revision cycle
- Technical breakout potential: price at $181.1 vs SMA50 $168.41850006103516 with RSI at N/A offering room
- Industry tailwinds and sector rotation catalyst driving institutional accumulation
🐻 Bear Case
- Valuation premium risk: PE at N/A with any earnings miss could trigger de-rating
- Macro headwinds (rates, geopolitical risk) creating near-term pressure on multiples
- Competitive intensity increasing in core market, potential margin compression
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $118.15517265319824 (SMA200) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 ($118.15517265319824) on above-average volume
- Revenue growth decelerates below sector average for two consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | EWY | $194.02 | 2026-06-11 18:36:13 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $181.07
Created: 2026-06-10 18:34:52
Scored: 2026-06-10T18:36:50.547943+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-11T18:36:13.467393+00:00