TSM#29
Thesis
TSM COUPE + AI optical market tailwinds. Institutional investors optimistic about Taiwanese supply chain for advanced packaging and photonics
Original post text
Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets. Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies: FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X? For FOCI: "Its https://t.co/3NLE868LEI
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (0.351) accelerates on AI/photonics demand, PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (373.1) with SMA200 (316.8) far below, momentum intact
- Institutional inflows expand as sector rotation favors photonics/semis
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI at 51.2 suggests overbought risk, pullback possible
- Gross margin (0.61873) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
- PE (34.722748) elevated, de-risking on any guide-down
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (316.8) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (316.8) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | TSM | $423.25 | 2026-05-28 18:42:58 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $404.52
Created: 2026-05-25 18:33:33
Scored: 2026-05-25T18:36:15.692028+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-28T18:42:58.329471+00:00