SNDKMU#32
Thesis
Memory sector valuation analysis showing SNDK and MU are undervalued on forward P/E basis relative to peers; implied bullishness on memory names
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
Memory Companies Forward P/E Estimates [May 2026]: Sandisk ($SNDK) ~22.9x [2026], ~7.4x [2027]. Micron ($MU) ~12.9x [2026], ~7.5x [2027]. SK hynix ~6.9x [2026], ~5.5x [2027]. Samsung ~6.8x [2026], ~5.0x [2027].
🐂 Bull Case
- Theme basket avg quality 72; leaders: MU(75), SNDK(70)
- Hyperscaler AI capex cycle continues — supply chain tightness benefits all basket names
- CPO/photics TAM expansion drives multi-year revenue tailwind across layers
🐻 Bear Case
- Sector rotation risk if AI capex disappoints or hyperscaler guide-down
- Concentration risk: basket dominated by semi/photonics — correlated drawdown
- Valuation expansion may stall on any slowdown in AI inference demand
🚫 Invalidation
SNDK closes below SMA200 on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops >15% from layer entry within 2 weeks
- Two or more basket constituents miss earnings by >10%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | SNDK | $1478.69 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | SNDK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | SNDK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | SNDK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | SNDK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | SNDK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t0 | MU | $751.00 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | MU | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | MU | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | MU | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | MU | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | MU | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | SNDK | $1794.01 | 2026-06-04 18:35:47 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $751.00
Created: 2026-05-26 11:35:50
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:06.472383+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:47.235201+00:00