LPK#36
Thesis
LPK (LPKF) has >80% market share in glass substrate equipment for CPO/advanced packaging; massive bottleneck play already up >100%
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
$LPK up >100% since initial thesis: Glass substrates are a massive supply chain bottleneck for CPO/advanced packaging. $LPK has quasi monopoly over equipment supply with >80% of players choosing their equipment.
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (-0.314) accelerates on AI/optical demand — PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (16.9), Weinstein stage 2 — momentum intact
- Institutional inflows + sector rotation favors AI supply chain names
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI 48.9 — overbought risk, near-term pullback possible
- PE (53.5) elevated; any guide-down triggers de-risking
- Gross margin (0.67817) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (9.3) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (9.3) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | LPK | $26.70 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | LPK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | LPK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | LPK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | LPK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | LPK | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | LPK | $21.40 | 2026-06-04 18:35:49 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $26.70
Created: 2026-05-26 11:35:50
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:07.687392+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:49.561035+00:00