EWGEWTEWY#4
Thesis
Iran war ending lifts oil fear discount; Europe/Taiwan/Korea equities were oversold on geopolitical risk
Original post text
Well, looks like Iran War is about to end. Markets/Indexes are probably going like this Monday. Probably even better for Europe/Taiwan/Korean equities that were dragged down more from oil fears.
🐂 Bull Case
- Weinstein stage 1 (bottoming/early) - structural uptrend intact
- Price above SMA50 (41.3) - short-term momentum bullish
- RSI at 60 - not overextended, room to run
🐻 Bear Case
- Counter-trend risk - market conditions may shift against long thesis
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 ($41.9) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Close below SMA200 ($41.9) on above-average volume
- Key technical level at SMA50 ($41.3) breached with volume
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | EWG | $42.91 | 2026-05-24 09:51:13 |
| t+3d | EWG | $43.49 | 2026-05-28 18:43:00 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $42.91
Created: 2026-05-24 09:30:56
Scored: 2026-05-24T18:35:37.720243+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-28T18:43:00.478009+00:00