NVDAAVGOMRVL#40
Thesis
CPO supply chain landscape; NVDA, AVGO, MRVL all positioned for CPO supercycle per BofA
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
CPO Supply Chain Participants (BofA): $NVDA Quantum-X/Spectrum-X, $AVGO TH6 Davisson, $MRVL competes in CPO.
🐂 Bull Case
- Theme basket avg quality 68; leaders: NVDA(74), AVGO(67), MRVL(62)
- Hyperscaler AI capex cycle continues — supply chain tightness benefits all basket names
- CPO/photics TAM expansion drives multi-year revenue tailwind across layers
🐻 Bear Case
- Sector rotation risk if AI capex disappoints or hyperscaler guide-down
- Concentration risk: basket dominated by semi/photonics — correlated drawdown
- Valuation expansion may stall on any slowdown in AI inference demand
🚫 Invalidation
NVDA closes below SMA200 on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops >15% from layer entry within 2 weeks
- Two or more basket constituents miss earnings by >10%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | NVDA | $215.33 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t0 | AVGO | $414.14 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | AVGO | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | AVGO | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | AVGO | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | AVGO | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | AVGO | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t0 | MRVL | $196.33 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | MRVL | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | MRVL | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | MRVL | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | MRVL | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | MRVL | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | NVDA | $220.05 | 2026-06-04 18:35:53 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $196.33
Created: 2026-05-26 11:35:50
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:10.690853+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:53.967834+00:00