QCOM#46
Thesis
QCOM diversifying into custom AI ASICs (ByteDance) and CPUs (META); massive revenue opportunity in custom silicon
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
$QCOM up ~55% from original thesis. Confirmed shipping AI ASICs to ByteDance by Q4: 1M units w/ ASP $4,000. Shipping CPUs in 2027: 3M units w/ $1,500 ASP. $META identified as lead CPU customer.
🐂 Bull Case
- Revenue growth (-0.035) accelerates on AI/optical demand — PT +20-30%
- Price above SMA50 (174.5), Weinstein stage 2 — momentum intact
- Institutional inflows + sector rotation favors AI supply chain names
🐻 Bear Case
- RSI 63.9 — overbought risk, near-term pullback possible
- PE (25.977419) elevated; any guide-down triggers de-risking
- Gross margin (0.54799) compression risk if competitive pressure rises
🚫 Invalidation
Close below SMA200 (163.0) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA200 (163.0) on weekly timeframe
- Revenue growth turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | QCOM | $238.16 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | QCOM | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | QCOM | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | QCOM | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | QCOM | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | QCOM | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | QCOM | $241.28 | 2026-06-04 18:35:57 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $238.16
Created: 2026-05-26 11:35:50
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:15.069689+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:57.034654+00:00