NVDAADI#47
Thesis
Robotics supply chain play; Kawasaki Heavy partnering with NVDA/MSFT/ADI for physical AI, confirmed by Jensen's TAM expansion comments
By @ParadisLabs · View post ↗
Original post text
For robotics, Kawasaki Heavy (7012) partnering with $NVDA, $MSFT, $ADI, Fujitsu. Robotics TAM expansion confirmed by Jensen.
🐂 Bull Case
- Theme basket avg quality 71; leaders: NVDA(74), ADI(68)
- Hyperscaler AI capex cycle continues — supply chain tightness benefits all basket names
- CPO/photics TAM expansion drives multi-year revenue tailwind across layers
🐻 Bear Case
- Sector rotation risk if AI capex disappoints or hyperscaler guide-down
- Concentration risk: basket dominated by semi/photonics — correlated drawdown
- Valuation expansion may stall on any slowdown in AI inference demand
🚫 Invalidation
NVDA closes below SMA200 on weekly timeframe
Break Conditions
- Basket average drops >15% from layer entry within 2 weeks
- Two or more basket constituents miss earnings by >10%
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t0 | NVDA | $215.33 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | NVDA | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t0 | ADI | $397.07 | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+1d | ADI | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+2d | ADI | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | ADI | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+7d | ADI | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+30d | ADI | $— | 2026-05-26 11:37:15 |
| t+3d | NVDA | $220.04 | 2026-06-04 18:35:57 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $397.07
Created: 2026-05-26 11:35:50
Scored: 2026-06-04T18:35:18.930284+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-04T18:35:57.535397+00:00