XFAB#63
Thesis
XFAB is an interesting long at $1.28B MC with EU CHIPS Act 2 catalyst for European photonics players. Has 800VDC power semi exposure via NVDA/NVTS/POWI push-through and silicon photonics/CPO capabilities. NVDA and NOK evaluating their SiPH side.
Original post text
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O
🐂 Bull Case
- EU CHIPS Act 2 funding confirmation → direct catalyst for European photonics names like XFAB
- NVDA/NOK evaluating SiPH capabilities → potential strategic partnership or customer win
- 800VDC power semi exposure via NVDA push-through NVTS/POWI → structural demand tailwind
🐻 Bear Case
- PE of 92x with negative revenue growth (-4.2%) and earnings declining 92% YoY → expensive for current fundamentals
- RSI at 85 (extremely overbought) + at 52-week high → high risk of pullback after momentum exhausts
- Volume spike (8x average) suggests short-term speculation, not fundamental re-rating
🚫 Invalidation
Close below €9.50 (SMA50) on above-average volume, or EU CHIPS Act 2 excludes photonics
Break Conditions
- EU CHIPS Act 2 funding does not materialize for XFAB or is smaller than expected
- Price closes below SMA50 (~€6.21) on weekly timeframe
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | XFAB | $10.76 | 2026-05-29 18:37:02 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $12.00
Created: 2026-05-27 18:35:13
Scored: 2026-05-27T18:36:23.782252+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-29T18:37:02.468965+00:00