SIVE#66
Thesis
Most compelling CPO/photonics exposure, committed holder with plans to acquire more, potential to become next $80B+ company like LITE from $2.1B market cap
Original post text
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. I haven't sold and don't plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support.
🐂 Bull Case
- CPO architecture adoption accelerates with hyperscaler deployments → PT $100+ as revenue scales
- SMA50 at 32.75 supports advancing Weinstein stage 2 → momentum crowd entering
- MRVL earnings validate CPO as strategic AI infra → relative strength bid for SIVE
🐻 Bear Case
- CPO deployment timeline slips or hyperscalers delay rack-scale adoption → revenue disappoints
- RSI at 60 signals neutral risk → potential consolidation
- Competitive threat from LITE/AAOI in laser supply → market share erosion
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $29.47 (10% under SMA50) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Price closes below SMA50 ($32.75) on weekly timeframe
- Hyperscaler capex cuts reduce photonics order visibility
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | SIVE | $68.95 | 2026-05-29 18:37:02 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $70.20
Created: 2026-05-28 18:37:48
Scored: 2026-05-28T18:41:18.698048+00:00
Updated: 2026-05-29T18:37:02.411081+00:00