AAOI#83
Thesis
More bullish at $13B MC due to laser bottlenecks. Markets missed analyst note on potential long-term supply agreements with NVDA/AMD. Projecting $471M in H1 2027.
Original post text
I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Than I was back at $2B or $6B. I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD. If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… https://t.co/iAzVWo8u4V https://t.co/B0g7p4wxNB
🐂 Bull Case
- Laser bottleneck thesis confirmed - $471M H1 2027 projection implies massive growth from current levels
- Potential NVDA/AMD long-term supply agreements would be transformative for revenue visibility
- Price (155) above SMA50 (148) with strong volume = institutional conviction
🐻 Bear Case
- $13B market cap already prices in significant growth - any miss on supply deals triggers re-rating
- Laser bottleneck may be temporary as competitors scale production capacity
- High beta semiconductor name vulnerable to sector rotation away from AI theme
🚫 Invalidation
Close below $66 (SMA200) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- Failure to announce NVDA/AMD supply deals within 2 quarters
- Revenue growth slows below 20% YoY
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | AAOI | $155.15 | 2026-05-29 18:36:59 |
| t+3d | AAOI | $177.39 | 2026-06-05 18:36:03 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $155.30
Created: 2026-05-29 18:34:34
Scored: 2026-05-29T18:36:06.282508+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-05T18:36:03.688852+00:00