XFAB#84
Thesis
Structural thesis: 800V DC power semiconductors with NVDA exposure, NVDA/NOK photonics evaluations, CHIPS Act beneficiary.
Original post text
Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act https://t.co/EXH09mhj76 https://t.co/fMY2dKu1v5
🐂 Bull Case
- 800V DC power semiconductor thesis with direct NVDA exposure - structural demand driver
- CHIPS Act beneficiary with European fab capacity coming online
- NVDA/NOK photonics evaluations provide additional optionality beyond power semis
🐻 Bear Case
- European semiconductor valuations typically trade at discount to US peers
- CHIPS Act funding may not fully materialize or be delayed
- Foundry model exposes to cyclicality risk if end-demand slows
🚫 Invalidation
Close below €5.82 (SMA200) on above-average volume
Break Conditions
- NVDA/NOK evaluations do not convert to contracts
- Revenue growth turns negative
Price Tracking
| Label | Ticker | Price | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| t+3d | XFAB | $10.76 | 2026-05-29 18:36:58 |
| t+3d | XFAB.PA | $10.26 | 2026-06-06 18:35:03 |
Metadata
T0 Price: $10.76
Created: 2026-05-29 18:34:35
Scored: 2026-05-29T18:36:07.019431+00:00
Updated: 2026-06-06T18:35:03.976961+00:00